This was a fun read not because I've forgotten but because I was a huge fivethirtyeight and Nate Silver fan around 2016 and I remember this pretty vividly. I had read the signal and the noise some years prior and was a big Nate Silver fan. I had really taken the vision he was selling of careful cold probabilistic thinking to heart. One of my mini-idols. Listened to the pod weekly to hear them discuss the intricacies of polling (I'm not even American, this was just some weird nerdy obsession with people who I saw as good thinkers/thought-leaders).

And I remember it was so frustrating to watch all these people online, almost immediately, contort the image of Nate Silver from "the guy who was least wrong" to "the guy who got it wrong". I don't want to psychoanalyse a public figure too much but it seems to me he's withdrawn from fivethirtyeight since then and I can't help but imagine that it partially has to do with how frustrating this must have been.

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